New technologies help tackle energy crisis

The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment.


The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment. Current energy trends are patently unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically. That said, there is still plenty of oil and gas to be found and produced, most of it is in increasingly difficult places – whether that’s difficult geology, difficult environmental conditions or difficult politics.


Whatever happens, supplies of easy-to-produce oil will certainly not keep up with growing energy demand. This is because, as economies grow and ascend the energy ladder, demand is likely to double over the first half of this century and we simply cannot increase (oil and gas) production that fast. Even if we produce energy from all possible sources it will be difficult to meet the world’s growing needs. Within this context, while oil will remain the leading energy source and there will be some price volatility, the era of cheap oil is over. The key questions being asked here are when is global oil and gas production going to peak? This could be anytime between now and 2040 for oil and a decade later for gas. How can we take it out of the ground fast enough to meet demand? How can we fill the gap between supply and demand from renewable energy such as wind, solar, etc or from coal or nuclear energy when, historically, it has taken 25 years for new energy sources and carriers to obtain a 1 percent share of the global market following commercial introduction? And will there be one leading alternative energy source?


To add more complexity, the oil market itself is also undergoing major and lasting internal structural change, with National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the ascendancy against the Integrated Oils Companies (IOCs) such as Shell, BP and Exxon. The NOCs have different motivations for globalization: For example, as China does not have many of own resources in oil and gas (but lots of coal), the Chinese NOCs such as CNPC, CNOOC and PetroChina all have a responsibility to provide the ‘motherland’ with secure energy supplies. Simultaneously, the NOCs of the major resource holders such as KOC (Kuwait), Petronas (Malaysia) want to expand globally in the downstream, i.e. refineries, forecourts arenas, and so by-pass the ‘middle man’ (IOCs) who traditionally refine and sell their crude oil. Others, like Saudi Aramco, simply want to decrease their dependency on the technology owned by the IOCs and develop their own staff. The key questions being raised here are therefore what will the role of the IOCs be in the future? And how can they play a role in, for example, sustaining supplies of affordable and responsibly produced oil and gas, through better technology, cost reductions, more efficient operations and fresh thinking?

Lastly, turning to the major challenge of climate change, we have to be clear that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are on an unsustainable pathway. To avoid “abrupt and irreversible” climate change we need a major decarbonization of the world’s energy system.

Read Leo’s views on the Future of Energy http://www.futureagenda.org/?cat=5


Leo Roodhart – President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and VP Group GameChanger Shell


Leo is currently the 2009 President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Prior to this he coordinated GameChanger – Shell’s corporate Strategic Innovation program that identifies and sponsors the development of new breakthrough technologies in the context of the various technology futures for the oil industry. Several new businesses and a multitude of new technologies have been created in this new process. Leo holds an MSc in chemistry and a PhD in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Amsterdam. He is an Associate Fellow on Strategic Innovation at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford. Leo has worked for Shell for 29 years in various functions including research and development, exploration and production, business development and innovation in The Netherlands, Canada and the UK.

Global mobile connections surpass 5 billion milestone

The mobile industry just added 1 billion connections in 18 months; and is on track to reach 6 billion in 1H 2012 according to Wireless Intelligence http://now.eloqua.com/es.asp?s=667&e=97345&elq=974b9ded463a4865857254064306fe11

The number of global mobile connections surpassed the 5 billion mark this week, according to new Wireless Intelligence data. The milestone comes just 18 months after the 4 billion mark was reached at the end of 2008 and is in line with our earlier forecasts. We predict that the 6 billion global connections milestone will be achieved in the first half of 2012. According to our data, the mobile penetration rate on a global basis at the 5 billion mark was 74 percent, compared to 60 percent at 4 billion. The highest penetrated region is Western Europe on 130 percent, while the lowest is Africa on 52 percent. Eastern Europe (123 percent) is the only other global region to have passed 100 percent mobile penetration.

The main driver of growth continues to be the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for 47 percent of global mobile connections at the end of 2Q10 (see table). This is up around 5 percent from 4Q08 when the 4 billion connections mark was reached. Growth in Asia-Pacific is due mainly to ongoing growth in China and India – the world's two largest mobile markets – which offset slowing growth elsewhere in the region in markets such as Pakistan and the Philippines. Growth was slower in mature markets such as Europe and North America, which now account for around 27 percent of global connections, compared to over 30 percent 18 months ago.

Kiwiblog tips Nats win

kiwiblog interpretation of the latest poll results - is that Labour are in deep trouble and have little chance of winning the 2011 election. However, the recession is not over yet and a lot can change in politics in a short space of time. On the horizon are looming challenges - for whoever forms the next government. The chronic balance of payments and current account deficits feature large in any external assessment of New Zealand's economic condition. Having said that - right now National have a handy lead in most polls.

Political parties will need to persuade the public that they have solutions for the thorny and intertwined issues of overseas indebtedness, overseas ownership and lack of NZ savings (in things other than housing).  Eventually these underlying constraints on sustainable prosperity will bubble to the surface of popular opinion and the party best prepared to resolve those concerns will be in a strong position. For now though credit card allowances, movie rentals and old sheds on Auckland's waterfront appear to be the focus of fourth estate scrutiny.

Gillard struggling over Timor flip flop

The new Australian Prime Minister - Julia Gillard (49) - was struggling today after having to back down over her policy announcement of a refugee processing centre in East Timor, or New Zealand.  Late today Gillard was backing off her earlier announcement saying that the proposed centre would not necessarily be in East Timor after all. 

The backtrack comes in the wake of revelations that the inexperienced Prime Minister consulted with the wrong political leader in the Timorese government.  Instead of speaking with her counterpart - the Prime Minister of Timor - Ms Gillard spoke with the Head of State - the President.  It would be the equivalent of President Obama phoning our Governor General for a chat about defence policy - rather than John Key.

Meanwhile Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was making the most of Ms Gillard's flip flop just days into her new job. Some of the ALP must be starting to wonder whether they hurried the leadership decision a couple of weeks ago.

Telstra fibre not enough: NBN Co - Telstra, nbn co, fibre - Computerworld

Computerworld recently published a report on Telstra's fibre network and how it will not be sufficient for Australia's National Broadband Network. Telstra fibre not enough: NBN Co - Telstra, nbn co, fibre - Computerworld

Chauvel opposes Income Splitting

Labour list MP, Charles Chauvel, has released a media statement apparently aimed at undermining United Future's income splitting policy. Income splitting is designed to enable parents to make their own choices about how they raise their children.

If one parent opts to stay at home to care for their own children then income splitting allows parents to be taxed as a couple instead of two individuals. In his media statement today Mr Chauvel says that in proposing this family-friendly policy Mr Dunne is out of touch with New Zealanders. 

Given that half the households in Ohariu are two parent families some observers might say it is not Mr Dunne who is out of tune with the electorate.

Good Cents Makes good sense in Porirua

An anti-debt programme called Good Cents is supported by Wesley Community Action in Porirua. The high level of debt in the local community is a key target of the group.  During the boom years of 2006-07 the group was puzzled as to why despite full employment and a growing economy the demand at the foodbank remained high.  It soon became apparent that high interest charges on loans were sucking cash out of the local economy.  Together with Agape Budget service the groups aim to reduce the chronic levels of debt and the exploitation of the poor by moneylenders. Well done Good Cents!

Renewable electricity on rise - Brownlee

The NZ Herald reported today on the growth of renewable energy use in New Zealand - Renewable electricity on rise. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10656035&ref=rss